中國華中大旱 全球糧價蠢動

中國華中大旱 全球糧價蠢動
50年一遇大旱災 中國43％農田受旱

〔編譯陳成良／綜合報導〕今年以來中國長江中下游地區爆發罕見乾旱，對湖北、湖南、安徽等地農業造成嚴重影響，各地眾多小型河流斷流，是五十年來最大旱象。據中國國家防汛抗旱總指揮部辦公室最新統計，目前有超過一億畝耕地受到乾旱影響，其中，湖北、湖南、江西、安徽、江蘇五省超過四千五百萬畝農田受旱，佔全國總數四十三％。乾旱導致這些原被視為「魚米之鄉」的省份，有約三百三十萬人面臨飲水困難。

鄱陽、洞庭湖竟成草原

長江中下游曾在一九七八、八一、八六、九四、二○○○年時，發生過嚴重春旱，但今年旱情比以往持續時間更長、範圍更廣、影響更大。湖南、湖北兩省相繼出現土地龜裂、湖泊水體萎縮現象，洞庭湖等主要湖泊水體面積比歷史同期減少約四成。素稱「千湖之省」的湖北，目前已有一千五百多座水庫低於「死水位」運行。以鄱陽、洞庭兩大淡水湖為例，河床不僅乾涸裸露，部分區域甚至變成草原。

中國進口糧食恐助漲糧價

另一方面，乾旱也對中國今年下半年的食品通膨帶來上漲風險。專家分析，長江流域和山東地區的乾旱，恐造成中國糧食減產，導致中國增加進口需求，此舉勢將造成國際糧食市場供求關係緊張，並推高美國玉米及小麥價格。而山東自去年九月以來，降雨量僅有十二毫米，該省小麥預計會減產約四十％。不過，中國農業專家認為，持續旱情對長江中下游災區夏糧生產的不利影響是既成事實。

史上首次 湖北乾旱橙色預警

湖北洪湖是中國第七大淡水湖，正常年份的水域面積約三百四十八平方公里，但如今三分之一面積乾涸，核心區水深僅四十公分，再過幾天有可能乾涸見底。一名六十六歲的稻農告訴路透，從來沒見過洪湖如此乾涸，再不下雨，他的稻子全部會枯死。湖北省當局已發佈史上第一個乾旱橙色預警，水荒危機可見一斑。而隨著華中旱情逐漸蔓延，沿海最大群島舟山群島，也破天荒的發佈乾旱橙色預警，五月三十一日開始限水。

洪湖只是中國長江中下游旱象的一個縮影，今夏上海和長三角地區，預料將面臨嚴重缺水和缺電問題。中國仰賴日益捉襟見肘的水資源餵養其龐大人口，並為數目激增的水力發電廠提供動力，如今這個全球第二大經濟體的水荒逐年加劇。

三峽大壩 乾旱元凶？

中國氣象專家將乾旱原因歸咎於氣候變化，但專家認為，長江沿岸的大壩建設也是原因之一。「中國水污染地圖」作者馬軍指出，降雨量少，是乾旱最主要的原因，但生態環境遭到破壞，也導致自然調節能力消失。他表示，三峽蓄水導致「清水下瀉」，亦即泥沙被攔阻，流到下游的是清水，結果是下游河道被沖刷變深，即使水量增加，水位可能還是減少，直接影響通江的湖泊。江河水位低，湖泊的水就會流入江河。三峽蓄水時，湖泊來水量大為減少；枯水時，三峽放水調節最近也證明效果有限。

[img]http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2011/new/jun/1/images/bigPic/600_51.jpg[/img]

中國長江中下游地區發生五十多年來最嚴重的乾旱，圖為五月初江西省湖口縣鞋山附近的鄱陽湖水域，一條船擱淺在已經乾涸裂開的湖床上。（路透）

[url]http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2011/new/jun/1/today-int5.htm[/url]

乾到變沙漠:53:

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