埃及 另一個強人將起而代之

軍隊強勢和部落主義為埃及民主化障礙

The writing is on the wall for the Egyptians: their President Hosni Mubarak had to go. That much was clear, because Washington had finally decided to gracefully dislodge the Egyptian autocrat from his 30-year rule over the Arab world’s most populous country rocked by violent protests by discontented people demanding a quick political change in Cairo. These people wanted democracy, which Mubarak had refused to grant. They believed they could oust Mubarak with Uncle Sam’s help just as Tunisia’s jasmine revolt got rid of Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali, who had to flee Tunis for exile after a 23-year reign.

對埃及人民來說，他們的總統穆巴拉克註定要下台。事態已經相當明顯，埃及人民發動示威抗議，在這股要求開羅政權儘速變天的聲浪當中，美國也終於決定，讓統治阿拉伯世界最多人口國家達30年之久的強人穆巴拉克，有個不至於太難看的下台。埃及人民要的是民主，穆巴拉克卻沒能給他們。突尼西亞發起茉莉花革命，趕跑專政23年的班阿里，埃及人民相信，在美國的幫助下，他們也能逼走穆巴拉克。

The question Uncle Sam is now facing is who is going to replace Mubarak. It's not very difficult to answer. All Washington needs to do is to let Egypt's all powerful army pick another Mubarak to continue the line of authoritarian rule started by Maj. Gen. Mohammed Naguib in 1952. Naguib was shunted aside by Col. Gamel Abdel Nasser, who was elected president in 1956. Nasser did pretty well – so much so that he was hailed at one time as a candidate for khalifah or caliph, the successor to Mohammad, the founder of Islam who unified the Arab nation. Well, Nasser died without realizing his dream of a new caliphate, one starter effort being to organize the United Arab Republic of Egypt and Syria and a loose Federation of Arab Republics of Egypt, Syria and Libya. Anwar Sadat, a vice president who took over from Nasser, aligned Egypt with the United States in1972 by ordering most of the 20,000 Soviet military advisers and personnel to leave. Mubarak, a vice president, succeeded Sadat, who was assassinated in1981. Vice President Omar Suleiman or Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi, head of the military council, may come into power.

軍隊是唯一的安定力量


現在，美國面臨的問題是，誰要來當穆巴拉克的繼任者。這不是個很難回答的問題，華府只需要讓埃及掌握大權的軍隊選出另一個穆巴拉克，延續自1952年納吉布少將開創的專制政權。不久納吉布遭到納瑟上校架空而下台，納瑟本人在1952年當選總統。他做得相當出色，一度被視為「哈里發」的候選人，哈里發就是伊斯蘭教創始人、阿拉伯世界統一者─穆罕默德的繼承人。雖然納瑟死時未能完成當上新哈里發的大業，卻也推動埃及、敘利亞組成阿拉伯聯合共和國（United Arab Republic），並讓埃及、敘利亞和利比亞組成鬆散的阿拉伯聯邦共和國（Federation of Arab Republics）。繼任納瑟的副總統沙達特，在1972年下令境內2萬名蘇聯軍事顧問和人員中的大多數離境，藉此與美國修好。他在1981年遭暗殺身亡，時任副總統的穆巴拉克接任。目前來看，副總統蘇雷曼或軍事委員會主席譚他威則是可能的權力接班人。

One thing Uncle Sam has learned is that he shouldn't pick the new Mubarak for the Egyptian army that is the only stabilizing force in the land, which boasts the world's oldest civilization. The United Sates selected the successor to Saddam Hussein in Iraq. That's a very bad idea, and it failed to work. Asa matter of fact, President George W. Bush shouldn't have started the Iraqi War in the first place. His father, George W. Bush, Sr., was much wiser. He suspended Operation Desert Storm to let Hussein continue his iron-fist rule, simply because Iraq, the land of Caliph Harun al-Racid of Arabian Nights fame, would be ungovernable without the dictator. The Abbassids, of whom al-Racid was one, overthrew the Ummayad caliphate in Damascus, and moved the capital to Baghdad. Together with Egypt, that produced the great leader Saladin who conquered Jerusalem to get the Crusades kicked off, Syria and Iraq were the three centers of power of the Arab world until the first oil shock in 1973 which pushed the kingdom of Saudi Arabia to the fore.

在孕育著全世界最古老文明之一的埃及，軍隊是唯一的穩定力量。美國在中東政治上總算學到了一件事，就是別再替埃及軍隊選出又一個穆巴拉克。美國替伊拉克挑出海珊（Saddam Hussein）的接班人，這是很糟的主意，而且沒有成功。事實上，小布希（George W. Bush）總統根本就不應該發動伊拉克戰爭。他的父親老布希比較聰明，老布希在美軍迫近巴格達時下令停止「沙漠風暴」作戰計畫，讓海珊得以繼續鐵腕統治伊拉克。因為若沒了這名獨裁者，這塊以《一千零一夜》而聞名全球的哈倫?阿拉希德王（Caliph Harun al-Racid）的統御地將會難以駕馭。要知道，穆罕默德過世後，繼承的奧米亞王朝（Umayyad）被阿拔斯王朝（Abbasids）推翻，將首都從大馬士革遷至巴格達。而在埃及偉大君主薩拉丁（Saladin）的帶領下，阿拉伯人曾經征服耶路撒冷，驅逐十字軍。埃及、敘利亞和伊拉克成為阿拉伯世界的三大權力中心，直到1973年石油危機爆發，才促使沙烏地阿拉伯王國脫穎而出，為一大安定力量。

Just as eagerly as the Crusaders tried to recover Jerusalem, the Americans are attempting to extend democracy all over the world, to the Arab world in particular. But their national interests have made it necessary for the United States to grow far too comfortable with an Arab world dominated by unmovable, abusive rulers like Hussein and Mubarak. American support for pro-Western oppressors assures a steady flow of oil and helps keep Israel, a handiwork of President Harry S. Truman, secure in the hostile Middle East.

美國國家利益勝過民主價值


美國好像急著收復耶路撒冷的十字軍，迫切想將民主推廣至全世界，尤其是阿拉伯世界。然而，國家利益卻又使美國必須讓海珊及穆巴拉克等冷酷、濫權的統治者坐大。美國支持親西方的暴君，以確保原油供應穩定不絕，並確保杜魯門總統一手催生的國家以色列，能在充滿敵意的中東生存。

In fact, Israel is quite secure, because its Arab neighbors can never be really united as a nation strong enough to drive the Jews into the Mediterranean. Tribalism has precluded a strong united Arab nation. Otherwise, the Arabs, like the Chinese, could form a cohesive political as well as cultural entity. Islam united the Arab tribes who founded the Muslim empire in Iraq which was the most powerful in the Western world at the beginning of the ninth century, much more so than Charlemagne's Holy Roman Empire and the East Roman Empire at Constantinople. Then came slow political decadence; and then the empire had fallen apart into separate autonomous states until the Ottoman Turks created their caliphate in Istanbul in the fourteenth century to begin ruling them by and large as such. Like the Chinese, the Arabs speak the same language, use the same script, have the same religion, and share the same culture. China hasn't been Balkanized because of the scholar-officials trained to maintain the Confucian social order and its people share the same script though they speak different dialects that are mutually unintelligible. The Arab slack such a bureaucracy.

事實上，以色列安全無虞，因為它的阿拉伯鄰國永遠無法真正團結起來，組成夠強大的統一國家，將猶太人趕入地中海。部落主義妨礙他們組成強大的阿拉伯單一國家，否則，阿拉伯人就能像中國人一般，組成具凝聚力的政治暨文化實體。伊斯蘭教曾經讓阿拉伯部落團結一致，在伊拉克建立起穆斯林帝國。在9世紀初，穆斯林帝國是西方世界最強大的帝國，甚至比查理曼大帝的神聖羅馬帝國，或君士坦丁堡的東羅馬帝國更強大得多。然而，政權逐漸頹傾，帝國崩解成數個自治小部落國家，直到鄂圖曼土耳其於14世紀在伊斯坦堡建立伊斯蘭帝國，開始統治。和中國人一樣，阿拉伯人有共通的語言、書寫、信仰和文化；中國儘管人民有互不相通的方言，若書不同文就會四分五裂，但並沒有分裂成小國，是因為儒教深植人心。阿拉伯民族缺乏如此的官僚體制，沒有深受儒家教育的官僚來維持儒家發揚的人倫社會，所以無法統一。

Tribalism also troubles all other member states of the Arab League. None of them can reach a strong unity of purpose to democratize themselves the way the United States wishes they would. Ben Ali is gone, but Tunisia can't be made a democracy overnight. Mubarak stepped down, but democracy won't come to Egypt in any foreseeable future. What the world is witnessing is the removal and replacement of leaders, not an upgrading of the political systems that allow someone like Mubarak to stay in power for three decades and then try to have his son succeed him.

部落主義同樣困擾著阿拉伯聯盟的其他成員，他們無法達成團結，來推動美國冀望的民主。班阿里下台了，但突尼西亞的民主無法立即實現。穆巴拉克下台了，但埃及民主化的未來仍是一片空茫。世界正見證統治者的下台與輪替，而不是看到一個像穆巴拉克掌權30年，而後又要讓兒子接替下去的政權會走上民主大道。（本文作者為資深新聞人及中央社董事長，譯者為中央社編譯）